They Were 3-7 in Their Last 10 Games. Now Iowa Is One Win From the Final Four.

Ben McCollum arrived at Iowa this season as a decorated Division II coach — four national championships at Northwest Missouri State — trying to prove that his system worked at the highest level. Critics spent most of January and February writing his eulogy. [1]

The Hawkeyes were inconsistent all season. They'd beat a ranked team, then drop one to someone they shouldn't. The late-season skid looked like a team running out of gas heading into the Big Dance. Nobody could have anticipated what the tournament would actually reveal. [2]

McCollum is now the only first-year head coach in the country to reach the Elite Eight this tournament. The last time a rookie coach pulled this off was 2023, when Rodney Terry (Texas) and Jerome Tang (Kansas State) both did it in the same year. It's rare. It's significant. And it's being completely underreported because everyone's busy talking about Duke and UConn. [1]

Iowa is the lowest-seeded Big Ten team ever to reach the Elite Eight, and the sixth No. 9 seed overall to make it this far in tournament history.

— CBS Sports NCAA Tournament coverage

The Bench Mob That Nobody Named

Here's the thing about Iowa's tournament run that hasn't gotten nearly enough love: this isn't a team carried by one guy. Bennett Stirtz is their engine — he dropped 20 points on 7-of-15 shooting with four assists against Nebraska in the Sweet 16, including the go-ahead three when Iowa needed it most [3] — but the story is much wider than that.

Freshman Tate Sage came off the bench against Nebraska and dropped a career-high 19 points on 6-of-10 shooting, going 4-of-7 from three. He hit a buzzer-beater in an earlier round that had Iowa's locker room losing their minds. Alvaro Folgueiras knocked down a game-tying three at a moment when the whole season was on the line. These are names national audiences are just now getting introduced to. [3]

Iowa's bench outscored Nebraska 38-20 in that Sweet 16 win. The starting lineup did its job. The reserves did it better. That's the most underrated skill in a 6-game tournament run — depth that holds up when starter legs get heavy in back-to-back weekends. [3]

Illinois Is a 6.5-Point Favorite. That Tells You Exactly Nothing.

The Illini are a legitimate team. Let's not disrespect them. They upset No. 2 Houston in the Sweet 16, 65-55, when nobody thought they could. They beat Iowa head-to-head in January, 75-69, in Champaign. They're the three-seed for a reason. [4]

But that January result cuts both ways. Iowa knows Illinois. They've played this game once already. They know what they're getting into. And the Hawkeyes have now proven — three times in nine days — that they can beat teams who are supposed to be better than them. [2]

The line opened at Illinois -6.5, over/under 137.5. In a tournament where Iowa's entire existence is a defiance of projected outcomes, I don't know what that number even means anymore. [4]

1987

That's how long it's been. 1987. Iowa's last Elite Eight. Ronald Reagan was president. Top Gun had just hit theaters. The Berlin Wall was still standing. A generation of Iowa fans grew up, had kids, watched those kids grow up, and never saw their team get to this point.

Iowa City has been carrying that weight for 39 years. Tonight, with a win over Illinois, they can put it down. And make a run at their first Final Four since 1980. [1]

I've been writing about college basketball for a while now. The purest stories in sports come from places that have been waiting a long time. Iowa isn't just playing for a game tonight. They're playing for everyone who bought a ticket at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in 1993, in 2001, in 2015, and went home with nothing. Every early exit. Every "maybe next year."

What to Actually Watch Tonight

A few things worth keeping an eye on when you tune in at 6:09 ET on TBS:

• Iowa's bench rotation: If McCollum runs a deep rotation the way he did against Nebraska, and if Tate Sage comes up big again, that's your story.
• Bennett Stirtz late: He had the nerve to hit a tough shot when Nebraska came back. Big-moment guards define tournament runs.
• Illinois transition offense: Houston couldn't stop it. Iowa has to. If the Illini get easy ones in transition, it gets ugly fast.
• The three-point line: Iowa shot 43% from deep vs. Nebraska. If that holds against an Illinois defense that shut down Houston? Upset time.

I'm not going to sit here and tell you Iowa wins tonight. Illinois is good, they're rested, and they're at home in spirit — this is a Big Ten rivalry game on a neutral floor. But I will tell you this: after three straight upsets as underdogs, you'd be foolish to fade these Hawkeyes. They've earned the benefit of the doubt. [2][4]

The bracket said Iowa was supposed to be gone days ago. The bracket was wrong. Tonight, we find out how wrong it actually was.