What Paxton Is Actually Selling

Ken Paxton is running as the unambiguous MAGA candidate. He was the first attorney general in the country to file a lawsuit challenging the 2020 election results. He survived an impeachment attempt by the Texas House in 2023. He came back stronger in his 2022 re-election than almost anyone predicted. His base sees all of that not as baggage but as a battle record. The policy argument he's making centers on immigration and election integrity. The SAVE Act — which passed the House in February 2026 and requires documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration — has become a loyalty test in conservative circles. Paxton supports it. Cornyn has not made it a signature issue. [3] In a Republican primary, that gap matters. Beyond the SAVE Act, Paxton is positioning himself as the candidate who won't cut deals when the deal involves compromising on core conservative commitments. His pitch is essentially: Cornyn has been in Washington long enough to become part of the problem.

Steve Bannon called Paxton "emblematic of the grassroots MAGA movement." CPAC activists in Grapevine this weekend were enthusiastically in his corner. The question is whether grassroots enthusiasm translates to votes in a low-turnout May runoff — which is historically the preferred terrain of motivated ideological voters, not casual primary participants. Paxton knows this, and his entire strategy is built around it. [4] Cornyn's team, meanwhile, is betting the other direction: that the intense national spotlight on the race will drive up overall turnout, and that higher turnout benefits the candidate with stronger name recognition and more money. Cornyn dramatically outspent Paxton in the primary. He has Senate Majority Leader John Thune openly lobbying on his behalf. He has institutional weight that a challenger can't easily replicate.

The Trump Variable

Here is the thing about this race that neither side wants to admit out loud: the outcome may hinge almost entirely on what one person decides to say on Truth Social. Donald Trump has pointedly refused to endorse in this race. He told reporters he would make an endorsement "soon" after the primary and that he expected the unendorsed candidate to drop out. Neither Paxton nor Cornyn is planning to drop out. And Trump, as of this writing, is still watching. His allies in Washington have made the case that Cornyn is the safer choice for November — Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, but Democrat James Talarico won his primary and will run a serious campaign. An impeachment-survivor AG with personal baggage is a riskier general election bet than a four-term incumbent with institutional support. That argument has traction with the people who run the math on elections for a living. [2] But Paxton has a counter-argument: primary voters want a fighter, not a calculator. He's survived things that would have finished any other politician in America. And his base loves him for surviving them.

What's interesting is the broader lesson this race teaches, regardless of who Trump picks or who wins. The tension between effective governance and ideological purity isn't new in conservative circles — it dates back to at least the early days of the Tea Party. But it's sharper now because the stakes are higher. Republicans have the Senate majority. They need that majority to hold through 2026 and beyond. Every contested primary in a red state carries the small but real risk of producing a nominee who can't close in November. Some analysts might dismiss those concerns as establishment handwringing. But winning elections is not a compromise of principle — it's the prerequisite for putting principles into practice. Ronald Reagan understood this. He also understood that the perfect shouldn't be the enemy of the good, even when the good wasn't always perfect. That wisdom doesn't seem to travel as well as it once did.

What This Race Is Really About

Strip away the personal history between Paxton and Cornyn, set aside the mutual contempt that their strategists have barely attempted to conceal, and what you have is a genuine philosophical argument about the GOP's future. Does the party need senators who can pass legislation and occasionally work across the aisle to keep its majority functional? Or does it need senators who represent the full ideological commitment of the base, even if governing is messier as a result? Both answers have real merit. Cornyn's record is more complicated than a Heritage Action score can capture — he's been effective on border security funding, judicial confirmations, and national security. Paxton's case for a harder line on election integrity and immigration enforcement is grounded in real policy concerns, not performative rage. The difference is one of emphasis and temperament. Cornyn believes in working the Senate as an institution. Paxton believes the institution has been worked against conservative voters for too long. Texas Republicans will have to decide which of those beliefs they trust more — assuming, of course, that Trump doesn't simply tell them what to think first.

The May 26 runoff is 58 days away. Both candidates are already raising money at a pace that will make this one of the most expensive primary runoffs in Texas history. If you're a conservative who wants to understand where the Republican coalition is actually headed — not the version you see on cable news, but the version that shows up to vote in May primaries — watch Texas closely. It's the clearest test of that question we're going to get for a while.