Japan's Dynasty Is Gone. Tonight, Venezuela Tries to Finish the Job.

Wait, Italy?

Before we get to the final, a moment of appreciation for the team that almost crashed the party. Italy reached the WBC semifinals for the first time ever. They went 4-0 in pool play, including an 8-6 upset of Team USA that made DeRosa's squad sweat in the group stage. And they almost became the story of the entire tournament. The moment that crystallized Italy's run came against Mexico in the final pool game. Vinnie Pasquantino — who had started the tournament 0-for-12 — hit three home runs in a single game [3]. The first three-homer game in WBC history. His celebration after each one? An espresso shot from a machine set up in the corner of the Italy dugout. The espresso machine had different jersey numbers labeled on it. You can't script this stuff. Italy beat Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals and pushed Venezuela to 4-2 in the semis before bowing out. They weren't supposed to be here. They were here, and they were good. International baseball is better for it.

Tonight: The Matchup

USA. Venezuela. 8 p.m. ET. loanDepot Park. FOX. The lineup matchups are as juicy as advertised. Team USA brings out Bobby Witt Jr., Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, Roman Anthony, Will Smith, Brice Turang, and Byron Buxton. On paper, that is one of the most loaded batting orders assembled for international play. In practice, the offense has been frustratingly quiet against real competition — they've scored 3, 6, 5, and 2 runs in their last four games, with two runs in the last 12 innings coming on solo shots [4]. Manager Mark DeRosa has one key dilemma: Mason Miller, his shutdown closer, has pitched three times in five days. The Red Sox confirmed Garrett Whitlock is available, but this is still mid-March and teams protect their arms. The matchup MLB fans came for is Judge vs. the Venezuelan back of the lineup. He's been sharp — two homers, six walks, a .979 OPS — but he hasn't quite taken over a game the way a three-time AL MVP can [4]. Tonight feels like the night that changes. Venezuela counters with Ronald Acuña Jr., Maikel Garcia, Luis Arraez, Eugenio Suárez, Gleyber Torres, Ezequiel Tovar, Wilyer Abreu, Salvador Perez, and Jackson Chourio. Garcia has been the tournament's quietest star — hitting .435 with 10 RBIs, the best combination of contact and run production on either roster [5]. Arraez is 8-for-25 with 10 RBIs and has been flat-out elite in that three-hole. And Chourio batting ninth might be the most absurd lineup decision in this tournament. The Brewers outfielder is one of the most dynamic young players in the sport, and Venezuela is basically stashing a loaded weapon at the bottom of the order. He started the semifinal rally against Italy with a two-out single that sparked four straight hits. Don't let the batting order position fool you [4].

The Starting Pitchers and the Bullpen Problem

Nolan McLean gets the ball for the Americans. He's 24, has 8 major league starts to his name, and was roughed up for three runs in three innings against Italy in pool play [4]. The plan almost certainly involves about 70 pitches and then handing it to the relievers. Four or five clean innings changes the whole picture for USA's pen depth. Eduardo Rodriguez, a lefty, goes for Venezuela. He struggled against the Dominican Republic in pool play — giving up three runs in 2 2/3 innings on a pair of homers — which is why DeRosa is going with Alex Bregman at third over Gunnar Henderson, getting the right-left matchup edge [4]. Here's the thing about both bullpens: Venezuela pushed its top three relievers — Eduard Bazardo, Andrés Machado, and closer Daniel Palencia — hard in consecutive days [4]. They'll need to be careful. USA has more depth. That's not an opinion, it's a fact of roster construction — it's advantage USA in any game that gets to the seventh inning.

Venezuela's Path Here Is Already the Story

Even if Venezuela loses tonight, this tournament belongs to them. They eliminated the dynasty. They reached their first-ever WBC Final. Acuña, Garcia, and Arraez have been the three best position players in the event. Their bullpen has been historically good in the knockout rounds. USA comes in with the edge: they're the home team, favored at -265, and have outscored Venezuela 37-30 in five previous WBC meetings [5]. In their 2023 quarterfinal meeting, Venezuela had a 7-5 lead before Trea Turner hit a grand slam to flip the game. The Americans have been here before. They know what this pressure feels like. But Venezuela beat Ohtani and Yamamoto in the same game while spotting Japan a two-run deficit. They handled Italy's hot bullpen in the semis. This team is not scared of anything.

Prediction and the Bigger Picture

ESPN's baseball analysts all went USA. CBS Sports' prediction was a Venezuela upset, offered largely because picking the underdog is more fun than picking the chalk [4]. The honest answer is it's a baseball game — one game, anything can happen. My take: USA wins 4-3. Bryce Harper, who has been ice-cold at 4-for-24 in this tournament [4], finally comes alive in the moment he was built for. Judge adds another big hit. McLean gives four solid innings, the bullpen holds, and Mason Miller — somehow, someway — closes it out because that's just who he is. But if Acuña goes off, if Garcia keeps doing Garcia things, if Chourio goes yard off a tired USA arm in the seventh inning — do not say you weren't warned. Venezuela has been the best story of this entire tournament. The dynasty is already over. The only question is who takes the throne.