Caleb Downs Might Be the Best Safety Prospect in 20 Years — and He Could Be a Jet

Yes, the Jets Could Take Him at #2

Look, I'm going to be upfront about something: I cover sports for a living and I am also a New York Jets fan. These are two facts that I have learned to hold simultaneously without going insane. So when Mel Kiper mocks Caleb Downs to the Jets at #2 overall on his pre-combine board, you need to know that I am being as objective as I possibly can when I tell you that this would be a correct football decision [4].

Downs would be the highest safety taken since Jamal Adams went #6 to the Jets in 2017. He's already drawing Kyle Hamilton comparisons — which, if you watched what Hamilton did for Baltimore's defense last year, should tell you everything. A Jets defense built around Downs, a quality corner or two, and an actual head coach who knows what he's doing has a real chance of becoming elite within two years. The last time the Jets had an elite defense, they went to two straight AFC Championships. I'm just saying [3].

The Real Combine Stories Aren't in the Top 10

I'll let you in on a secret about how to watch the combine: don't spend all your time watching the guys you already know are great. Watch the edge rushers. Watch the offensive linemen. Watch the running backs. Those are the position groups where a single 40-yard dash or a single cone drill can shift a projection by 30-40 spots and change where a team is looking in Round 2.

This year's version of that story is David Bailey, edge rusher out of Texas Tech. He was productive in college — double-digit sacks in his final season — but his film raised questions about his first-step quickness and bend around the edge at the next level [2]. A dominant combine workout — specifically a sub-4.5 forty and a strong three-cone drill — and Bailey could legitimately enter top-5 conversation. A mediocre one and he's a late first-rounder at best. Lucas Oil Stadium on Thursday will tell us which version of David Bailey we're dealing with.

Texas A&M leads all schools in combine invitees this year, and offensive guard Chase Bisontis is the name to know from that group [2]. He projects as a Day 2 pick right now, but his combination of size, athleticism, and nastiness in the run game has some scouts already circling him as a first-round sleeper. If he tests well and interviews clean, don't be shocked to see him climb.

The QB Problem Nobody Wants to Say Out Loud

Fernando Mendoza is great. After Mendoza, the 2026 quarterback class gets real thin, real fast. Carson Beck, Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar, Cade Klubnik — those are the names behind him, and that's a collection of "he could develop" quarterbacks, not "he can start right now" quarterbacks [3]. In years with deep QB classes, a team can trade up to get its guy. In thin years, teams panic and reach, and bad franchise decisions get made in Indianapolis hotel rooms.

This matters enormously for teams like the Raiders (#1), the Giants, the Bengals, and about eight other teams that are going to walk into their draft rooms in April telling themselves their QB situation is a problem they need to fix. Most of them are going to have to wait — either for the 2027 class, or for a veteran trade, or for one of these guys to turn into something they're not projecting to be right now. The combine won't change that math, but it will clarify it [4].

When to Watch, What to Watch For

The schedule kicks off Thursday at 3 PM ET on NFL Network — defensive linemen and linebackers first [1]. That's where Bailey gets his shot. Quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends go Saturday. Caleb Downs and the defensive backs work out Monday, March 2nd. The forty-yard dash results will be everywhere on social media within seconds of each run, but if you can watch the position drills live, do it — that's where the actual evaluation happens, not the sprint times.

The combine is three days of athletes doing things that normal humans physically cannot do, with thirty-two organizations spending billions of dollars deciding which ones to bet on. It is, despite the corporate machinery around it, genuinely exciting. Tune in Thursday. And if you happen to be a Jets fan, set an alarm for Monday morning and go find a stream of the defensive back workouts. You're going to want to see Caleb Downs run.