Cade Cunningham Was Building Something Historic. Then He Dove for a Loose Ball.

The MVP Question Just Got Complicated

Here's where it gets genuinely painful. The NBA's collective bargaining agreement requires players to appear in at least 65 games — including 63 with at least 20 minutes — to be eligible for regular season awards like MVP and All-NBA teams. The rule was designed to disincentivize tanking, but its side effect is brutal for exactly this situation: a guy who has carried his team to the best record in the conference all year can lose the award because of one bad collision five minutes into a March game. [2] Cade has played in 61 games. He needs four more appearances before the season ends. The Pistons' regular season concludes in mid-April, with 14 games remaining as of the injury. The team says he'll be reevaluated April 2. Per Yahoo Sports' Kevin O'Connor, the average recovery for recent NBA players with a pneumothorax is about 26 days and 11 missed games. CJ McCollum — who's had this injury twice — missed 18 games the first time around. If Cade mirrors McCollum's first incident, he comes up one game short of the eligibility threshold. [3] The oddsmakers moved quickly. DraftKings moved the Pistons from +2,000 to +2,500 in NBA title odds. Their Eastern Conference odds went from +400 to +700. Cade himself was taken off the board entirely at most sportsbooks for MVP. A season's worth of work, and now the hardware depends on a lung healing on a specific timeline. [2]

There is some optimism that Cunningham will be back in time for the start of the playoffs, which begin on April 18.

— Shams Charania, ESPN

Can Detroit Hold the Fort?

The short answer is: probably, but not comfortably. The Pistons were 5-2 without Cade this season before the injury, which sounds reassuring until you see the underlying numbers. Detroit's offensive rating with Cade on the floor is 121.5 — elite, top of the league. Without him, it drops to 112. That's a nine-point swing, and a 112 offensive rating puts you near the bottom five in the NBA. [3] What saves them is the defense. The Pistons are +2.7 in net rating even when Cade sits, because they can guard people regardless of who's running the offense. Daniss Jenkins is expected to step into the starting lineup, with Caris LeVert, Ausar Thompson, Marcus Sasser, and Tobias Harris picking up extra usage. It's not a replacement — you don't replace a guy averaging 9.9 assists per game — but it's a functioning basketball team. Detroit's eight-game cushion over Cleveland in the standings gives them some margin for error. [3] The real concern is the playoffs. A first-round series starts April 18. The Pistons' best-case scenario: Cade makes it back for the final few regular season games, gets some reps in, and walks into the postseason relatively healthy. Their worst case: he's not ready until the playoffs, makes his return in a high-stakes game without game conditioning, and the Pistons get knocked out before anyone gets to see what this team was actually capable of. [1]

This Was Supposed to Be the Year

The story Detroit fans have been watching is genuinely something. You go from the worst record in basketball — from a 28-game losing streak that shattered the all-time mark — to the top seed in the Eastern Conference in two years. You watch Cade Cunningham stay through all of it, stay professional, stay excellent, and finally get a team worthy of what he's been doing. You watch him have his best season yet, put himself in the MVP conversation against Jokić and SGA, and lead the Pistons to a record that franchise hasn't seen in nearly 20 years. [4] And then he dives for a loose ball in March, and a 24-year-old lung decides to cause problems. There's still a version of this that ends well. The injury is considered mild. The playoffs don't start for almost a month. Shams Charania specifically used the word "optimism" when discussing Cade's return for the postseason, and that's Shams — that word means something. If he makes it back healthy, the Pistons are still one of the most dangerous teams in the league. They have the depth, the defense, the experience from last year's playoff run, and a player who, when healthy, was having one of the most complete individual seasons in the league this year. [1] Detroit might still get its year. But right now, everything depends on how fast a lung heals.